Modelagem de nicho ecológico de Attalea Pindobassu bondar (Arecaceae): avaliação da sinonímia com Attalea Seabrensis e da viabilidade econômica futura

Abstract

Each species occupies a specific ecological niche, defined by its physiological limitations, relationship with the environment, evolutionary history, dispersion, and ecological interactions. Ecological niche modeling is a tool that allows for the identification of the environmental conditions essential for the survival of a species. This approach represents one of several potential steps to demonstrate the role of environmental adaptation in ecological niches and in the geographic distribution of biodiversity, as well as its response to ongoing climate change. In the first chapter, we used ecological niche modeling to compare the niches of Attalea pindobassu and Attalea seabrensis, endemic palms from the Chapada Diamantina complex in Bahia. These species are considered synonymous, with their distributions restricted to the Serra de Jacobina and the Serra do Sincorá, respectively, regions with marked environmental differences. In the second chapter, we investigated the ability of the ecological niche model to predict the productivity of A. pindobassu and the potential impacts of climate change on its long-term exploitation. Our results delineated distinct favorable areas for the two species, with differences in the relative influence of the variables, reflecting variations in the abiotic characteristics of the environments in which the species are found. With the second study, it was possible to verify that areas with greater climatic suitability tend to present higher productivity. Climate projections indicate a drastic reduction in the climatic suitability of A. pindobassu. Based on these results, we concluded that A. pindobassu and A. seabrensis have different environmental preferences and, therefore, should be treated as ecologically distinct species. Moreover, the results point to the need to adopt adaptation measures to mitigate the possible economic impacts that climate change may have on the extraction of A. pindobassu.